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亚马逊云账号( severe flooding dent growth in December?



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Extensive damage: The recent floods may reverberate in terms of supply chain disruptions and would have affected production considerably.

EXPORTS had stayed robust in November, 2021, while accelerating imports of consumption goods and capital goods signaled continued expansion in domestic demand.

But in December, 2021, when flash floods hit, the momentum had likely slowed due to near-term disruptions in the manufacturing sector and ports.

The floods had affected eight states including Selangor where the industrial hub of the Klang Valley is located, and Kuala Lumpur.

Floods which are usually concentrated in the north-eastern states such as Terengganu, had even hit the economic centre in Johor.

Heavy floods in the Port Klang and Shah Alam areas may reverberate in terms of supply chain disruptions and would have affected production considerably.

Already, there is an expected decline in trade growth in 2022; hopefully, the disruptions from the floods will not dent it too severely.

A commodity price rally and recovery in global demand, driven by advanced economies, have been a big shot in the arm for Malaysia’s trade growth this year (an increase of 24.6% year-on-year in the 11 months of 2021), setting a high base for 2022.

“Export growth is projected to moderate from 24.8% y-o-y in 2021, to 10.2% y-o-y in 2021, while import growth is expected to be lower from 22.4% y-o-y in 2021 to 18.6% in 2022,’’ said CGS-CIMB Research.

This is as commodity tailwinds fade and global economic growth moderates.

The damage from floods is between RM1bil to RM1.5bil, as estimated by various parties including the Public Works Department.

That is about 0.1% of gross domestic product (GDP).

“While economic output will be dented, especially for the factories that were affected, reconstruction efforts will compensate for the dent to GDP,’’ said Socio Economic Research Centre executive director Lee Heng Guie.

No doubt the disruptions had dealt a severe blow as trucking fleets and roads were damaged, but there would have been some compensatory ramp-up of production of Chinese New Year (CNY) goods in December.

Month-on-month (December compared to November, 2021), there may not appear to be too much of a drop, but there is likely to be an impact from a year-on-year basis of comparison, said former Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew.

In terms of logistics, a big problem is that many CNY goods that were imported and ready to be delivered, were stored in warehouses when the floods hit.

“All the goods in our warehouse are totally damaged, we still have containers for which liners are charging demurrage and detention, at the port yard waiting to be collected,’’ said Big Tree Logistics Sdn Bhd director Vincent Low. “Our operations are tremendously impacted.’’


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